Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 23.735125 26.995972 30.503918 34.553764 39.095725 44.027765 49.784333
2024-12-29 18.735901 23.120388 28.193149 34.478160 42.037202 50.815922 61.763145
2025-01-05 16.749445 21.763186 27.835662 35.697999 45.571175 57.518588 73.027572
2025-01-12 14.514964 19.763964 26.389922 35.314949 46.962431 61.579658 81.237335
2025-01-19 12.257920 17.408213 24.154918 33.568194 46.278393 62.748435 85.593853
2025-01-26 11.334108 16.698168 23.954828 34.392563 48.904905 68.232674 95.758028
2025-02-02 10.582964 16.127069 23.852039 35.276451 51.588938 73.859323 106.337419
2025-02-09 9.612072 15.134550 23.051898 35.077839 52.692139 77.314628 114.041838
2025-02-16 8.693894 14.125003 22.126514 34.593451 53.299981 80.039208 120.779333
2025-02-23 8.060503 13.484518 21.680661 34.755281 54.815513 84.083676 129.552403
2025-03-02 7.555542 12.995122 21.414139 35.145779 56.659257 88.655597 139.272343
2025-03-09 7.074739 12.499034 21.090828 35.406717 58.289579 92.951922 148.741819
2025-03-16 6.510648 11.829583 20.460116 35.163167 59.157641 96.197683 156.884157
2025-03-23 6.107464 11.397338 20.179561 35.458543 60.885725 100.841552 167.405954
2025-03-30 5.897495 11.278500 20.401260 36.579731 63.987383 107.755265 181.778406
2025-04-06 5.446399 10.690514 19.780926 36.231714 64.628084 110.749174 189.994480
2025-04-13 4.802171 9.692911 18.374692 34.428846 62.698253 109.444253 191.115783
2025-04-20 4.628467 9.558758 18.482634 35.277620 65.334588 115.764734 205.071200
2025-04-27 4.474127 9.447616 18.620747 36.180791 68.100884 122.410276 219.839402
2025-05-04 4.177638 9.033075 18.169659 35.978049 68.888208 125.713679 229.055841
2025-05-11 3.867743 8.564936 17.583393 35.481984 69.108517 128.029920 236.645745
2025-05-18 3.664515 8.297081 17.359171 35.647717 70.533748 132.494527 248.144787
2025-05-25 3.503124 8.102699 17.262869 36.047449 72.403618 137.812061 261.350458